- Football - International - FIFA - World Cup 2010
To say the least, I’m puzzled by the odds for Germany vs England.
However marginal, England are actually quoted favourites. Could it be the result of biased UK bookies in anticipation of patriotic Pounds? Anyway, I can’t agree with the quotes. Instead, I look to the wise words of a far less biased Englishman.
"Football is a simple game. Twenty-two men chase a ball for 90 mins and at the end, the German wins. ”Gary Lineker.
Here’s why I think the market’s wrong and the Germans should be rightly favourites to win this tie:
1. The English invented the modern game but the Germans made this controversial Jabulani ball – which the Bundesliga used for the whole of last season (so did Argentina and USA if you’re interested to know). Morever, the unpredictable ball doesn’t suit the instinctive long-ball style of the English;
2. The Germans did better than the English when the tournament was last played in altitude, Mexico 1986;
3. The Germans are traditionally better travellers (away team) which is an important factor in competitions on foreign soil;
4. Last 7 World Cup results read:
5. The long Premiership season, not to mention 2 domestic cup competitions has always hurt England’s post-season performance (injury, fatigue etc). The Bundesliga only has two less clubs and just one cup competition;
6. Champions League finalists Bayern Munich (4 players in the start 11);
7. Germany topped Group D (opponents ranked 55 in total), arguably the tournament’s group of death while England struggled to qualify in a much easier group (69);
8. England are not settled in every position! They have an key keeper from a relegated side, centrehalf Terry has been paired with Ferdinand, Carragher and Upson and forward Rooney with Heskey and Defoe in their 3 matches so far. Then, there is the questionable Lampard-Gerard pairing even though no one wants to bring it up. Bear in mind that Lampard had his career-best season (most goals and assists per season) playing in a more advanced for his double-winning side Chelsea. Now that winless Gerrard is captain, I’m afraid we won’t see the best of Lamps for this World Cup;
9. Three German strikers (Klose, Podolski & Cacau) and two attacking midfielders (Muller & Ozil) have already found their mark in the tournament but England’s supposed talisman Rooney is still 0 for 3. Now, with Defoe certain to start after the Slovenia winner, Rooney could find himself in a deeper role which he did not fare well (with Berbatov) for United last season;
10. Last but not least, if it comes down to penalties, who is your money going to be on?
I expect Germany to be in the 1. 80 mark (100%) to qualify over England so at this point, they look value to me.
Let's hope Octopus Paul is right.
|24/06/2010 03:07, read 6270 times