- Football - Europe - CL - Champions League
Interesting market move in the last hour - Twente were initially favoured but some money have come for Benfica, making them marginal favourites now. Therein lies value.
I don't see much difference between the two sides but admittedly, Benfica have better individuals. I can agree the Portuguese side are favourites to win the tie but certainly NOT the opening away leg.
Twente have been an improving side in Netherlands over the past 5 seasons. They have consistently finished in the top 4, winning the Eredivisie title in 2009/10. This is an impressive stat considering they were declared bankrupt in 2002. They may not boast big name players but are very solid as a team. This season, you can expect more unity from Twente after disciplinarian Co Adriaanse took over from ex-Benfica great Michel Preud'homme. Adriaanse also had a spell in Portugal, steering Porto to a domestic double in 2005/06.
Twente had a good outing in last season's Champions League, finishing 3rd behind Tottenham and Inter but ahead of Werder Bremen. They were subsequently knocked out in the 1/4 finals of the Europa League after overcoming the likes of Russian mights Rubin Kazan & Zenit St Petersburg in prior rounds. Their home record in Europe remains strong, 3/5/1 in their last 9. Certainly not an easy team to beat.
Of course, Benfica are a bigger club and boast bigger players - the likes of Aimar (doubtful today), Cardozo, Saviola, Luisao, J Garcia etc. However, they have lost bigger players over the last 3 seasons. Di Maria & Coentrao have gone to Real Madrid and D Luiz & Ramires to Chelsea.
More importantly, Portuguese clubs just don't travel well in Europe. In the Champions League, Benfica are 2/3/8 in their last 13 on the road and 3/3/4 on their last 10 travels in the lesser UEFA Cup/Europa League competitions. Away to Dutch sides, they are just 1/6/2. That win was way back in 1968/69, during their glory years!
Lastly, I will stick to my betting mentality for 2-leg ties that, between two fairly even sides, the away team can accept a single-goal defeat as long as they get the away goal. Therefore, backing Twente at DNB is value imo, especially at big prices.
My price: Twente -0. 25 $2. 05
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|16/08/2011 16:36, read 2477 times